世界银行-缅甸2023年5月特大气旋风暴莫查：全球灾后快速损失估计（GRADE）报告（英）.docx

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1、JUNE29,2023Pzoual11soosQo=qndNexttoabrokenbridgeinSittwe,inMyanmarsRakhinestate,washedashorefishingboatsarepiledup.Source:SaiAungMain/AFP.PaZ一一0namsoosQo=qndExtremelySevereCyclonicStormMOCha,May2023,Myanmar:GlobalRapidPost-DisasterDamageEstimation(GRADE)ReportDisclaimerThisworkisaproductofthestaffof

2、TheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthiswork.Theboundaries,colors,denomina

3、tions,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.2023InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNWWashingtonDC20433Telephone:Internet:ementsThisr

4、eportwaspreparedbyateamledbyRashminGunasekera(Urban,DisasterRiskManagementResilienceand1.andGlobalPractice-GPUR1.zWorldBank).TheteamcomprisesofJamesDaniell,AntoniosPomonis,JoshuaMacabuag,JohannesBrand,BramkaArgaJafinozJensdeBruijnzDianaCubas,RoberthRomerozAungNaingOozandKerriCoxoftheGFDRR,sGlobalPro

5、gramforDisasterRiskAnalyticsandtheWorldBanksGPUR1.DisasterResilienceAnalyticsandSolutions(D-RAS)team.TheteamwassupportedbytheGFDRRGlobalProgramfortheDisasterandFCVNexus(D-FCV),comprisingofKarimaBenBihzKatiePeters,and1.ara1.oussert.ThisWorldBankengagementintheEastAsiaandPacific(EAP)RegionwasledbyJola

6、ntaKryspin-WatsonwithsupportfromKhinAyeYeezDixiMengote-Quah(EAPUrban/DisasterRiskManagement-DRM),andSutirthaSinhaRoy(EAPPovertyandEquity),ValensMwumvaneza(EAPAgricultureandFood),KemoMansaray(EAPMacroeconomics,TradeandInvestment),andKimAllanEdwards(EAPEquitableGrowth,FinanceandInstitutions);withguida

7、nceprovidedbyMingZhang(PracticeManager,EAPUrban/DRM).TheteamisgratefulforcollaborationandinputsfromUNDPandMIMUteamincluding:OanaMihai,ShonCampbell,KyawZeyaHtunzandothers.TheteamisalsogratefulfortheJust-In-TimefinancialsupportoftheGlobalFacilityforDisasterReductionandRecovery(GFDRR).AbbreviationsNDMC

8、:D-RAS:FAO:GAD:GPUR1.GRADE:MIMU:MOA1.I:PDNA:NationalDisasterManagementCommitteeDisaster-ResilienceAnalytics&SolutionsTeam,WorldBankGroupFoodandAgricultureOrganisationoftheUnitedNationsGeneralAdministrativeDepartmentUrban,DisasterRiskManagement,Resilienceand1.andGlobalPracticeGlobalRApidpost-disaster

9、DamageEstimationMyanmarInformationManagementUnitMyanmarMinistryofAgriculture1.ivestockandIrrigationPost-DisasterNeedsAssessmentContentsAcknowledgements3Abbreviations3ExecutiveSummary5KeyFindings5EstimatedDamages61Introduction811Eventdescription81.2Impacts91.2.1 DamagereportsinRakhineState101.2.2 Dam

10、agereportsinotherstates/regions141.2.3 Additionalinformation161 4Conflictexacerbateddisasterriskandimpacts172 AThehistoricalcontextoftropicalcyclonesinMyanmar193 Methodologyandresults2271Exposure222.2Methodologyadopted24?4Estimateddamages2524Socio-economicvulnerabilityconsiderations292.4.1 Multidime

11、nsionalpovertyandstructuralvulnerabilityofMyanmarhouseholds292.4.2 ExposureofsociallyvulnerablehouseholdstoCycloneMocha31qInterpretationofresults324Conclusions34Annex 1 -Methodology36Annex 2 -GRADEDataSummary39Annex 3 -ImpactsOftropicalcyclones/stormsaffectingMyanmar(1968to2022)42ExecutiveSummaryGiv

12、enthefragileandconflict-affectedsituationwithlimitedaccessinMyanmar,theWorldBankhasadoptedtheGlobalRApidpost-disasterDamageEstimation(GRADE)methodologytoestimatedamagesarisingfromCycloneMocha.GRADEisaremote,desktopanalysistoestimatedamagetocapitalstock.ThisreportsummarizestheresultsoftheGRADEGlobalR

13、Apidpost-disasterDamageEstimation(GRADE)approachdevelopedattheWorldBankandconductedbytheUrban,DisasterRiskManagement,Resilienceand1.andGlobalPractice(GPUR1.)Disaster-ResilienceAnalytics&Solutions(D-RAS)KnowledgeSiloBreaker(KSB).Themethodologyaimstoaddressspecificdamageinformationneedsinthefirstweeks

14、afteramajordisaster.Fordetailsofthemethodologysee:conductedtoassessdamagesfollowingtheimpactofExtremelyseverecyclonicstormThisterminologyfollowstheclassificationoftropicalcyclonesintheWMOregionaltropicalcyclonebodies.Availablefrom:accessed18/06/2023MochainMyanmarduringMay2023.KeyFindings TotalDamage

15、s:ThemedianestimateoftotaldirectdamagescausedbyCycloneMochaisUS$2.24billion,equivalentto3.4%ofMyanmarsGDPin2021.Thisincludesdamagestoresidentialandnon-residentialbuildingsandcontents,agriculture,andinfrastructure. OutputDefinition:Economicimpactsarereportedintermsofcapitaldamages,estimatedviatheGRADEmethodology. AffectedSectors:Basedondamagesestimatedfromreportedimpacts,theresidentialhousingsectoristhehardesthit,followedbynon-residentialbuildingsandinfrastructure,andthenagriculture. SpatialDistribution:Over80%ofthedamagesoccurredinRakhineandSagaing.Rakhinewasthewo