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1、McKinsey&CompanyAutomotive&AssemblyPracticeWilltoday,senvironmentaffectvehiclepurchasedecisionsforUSconsumers?TheeconomicenvironmenthasUSconsumersrethinkingtheirnextcarpurchase.AtthesametimezinterestinenvironmentallyfriendlyvehiclesContinuestogrow.byNataschaBuresch,RussellHensley,NicholasLaverty,and
2、FelixRupallaDecember2023About the surveyIn June 2023, we surveyed lz029 US consumers, all of whom owned at least one car in their household, with 50 percent of respondents owning more than one. About 20 percent of respondents already owned an electric vehicle (EV) (including battery EVs, plug-in hyb
3、rid EVs, and fuel-cell EVs). Forty-one percent of respondents had a household income of less than $5,000 per month; the average US household income in 2022 was $6,200 per month? (With the average price of cars currently purchased hovering around $48,000, this cost is equivalent to about eight months
4、 of salary.2),Median household income in the United States, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated September 12, 2023.2 Kelley Blue Book analysis: Average new-vehicle transaction price in June posts smallest annual gain in nearly 4 years/ Kelley Blue Book, July 11,2023.Ifyoufeelasthoughyoureseei
5、ngmoreelectriccarsontheroad,itsbecauseyouare.Electricvehicle(EV)registrationsintheUnitedStateshaveincreased45percentannuallysince2017,withUScoastalstatesleadinginconsumerdemand.1Thisgrowthcanbepartiallyattributedtoimprovingcharginginfrastructure,moreandbettermodelsfromwhichtochoose,andEVcostimprovem
6、entsovertime.Forinstance,researchfromMcKinseyBatteryInsightsshowsthatbatterycellcoststodayarejustone-thirdofwhattheywereadecadeago.Regulatorychangesaimedathelpingthecountryachieveitsemission-reductiontargets,suchastheCaliforniaAirResourcesBoard,sairpollutionprogramsandthefederalInflationReductionAct
7、,havealsolikelyplayedarole.Yetconsumersarefacingmountingfiscalpressurethatcouldaffecttheirpurchasedecisions.Interestratesareupfrom0.05percentinearly2022to5.33percenttoday.2Andtheaverageannualcostofowningacarforthefirstfiveyearshassurpassed$12,000,upfromabout$10,700in2022;thatis16percentofthemedianho
8、useholdincomebeforetaxes.3Tobetterunderstandtheimpactoncarbuyers,wesurveyedmorethan1,000consumers,representingaverageUScarbuyers(seesidebar,Aboutthesurvey).ThesurveyrevealedthatwhilethecurrenteconomicenvironmentmayhavepeoplerethinkingEVandothercarpurchasesintheshortterm,EVinterestcontinuestogrow.The
9、futureisstillelectricitmayjusttakelongertogetthere.PeopleexpecttodelaynewpurchasesforbothEVsandothercarsbecauseofreducedpurchasingpowerThecurrenthigh-interest-rateenvironmenthaslikelyreducedpurchasingpowerforalargeshareofUSconsumers.Seventy-sevenpercentofrespondentsnotedthatreducedpurchasingpowerisc
10、ausingthemtoeitherpostponelargeexpensesorbemoreconsciousaboutspending.Carpurchasesarelikelytobeaffected:nearly40percentofrespondentswhohadintendedtobuyavehiclearepostponingthatpurchase,whileaquarterplaninsteadtopurchaseamoreaffordablecartype(Exhibit1).Notably,buyersconsideringanEVsaidtheywerelessinc
11、linedtodelaytheirpurchaseorchooseamoreaffordableoption,insteadshowingmoreinterestinextendedfinancingoptions.Fewrespondentsareplanningtoentirelyabandonexistingplanstopurchaseacar,butthosewhoarecitehighcarprices,lackofaffordability,andhighinterestratesforfinancingasreasonsfortheirdecision.Currentecono
12、micfactorsincreaseinterestinfinancingWhenbuyinganewvehiclein2023,about80percentofbuyersintheUnitedStateschosetofinance,whileabout20percentchosetopurchaseoutright.4ComparedwithDecember2022,fewerpeopletodayexpecttopurchasefuturecarsoutright(43percentversus53percentin2022),andrespondentsexpressedgrowin
13、ginterestincreditfinancingandleasingthoughfinancingbecomes,Vehicleregistrationcountsbystate/*USDepartmentofEnergyAitemativeFuelsDataCenter,2022.llEffectivefederalfundsrate/FederalReserveBankofNewYork,accessedOctober30,2023.BrittanyMoyer4lAnnuaInewcarownershipcostsboiloverS12K,AAANewsroomzAugust30,20
14、23;GloriaGuzmanandMelissaKollarfIncomeintheUnitedStates:2022/USCensusBureau,September12r2023.StateoftheautomotivefinancemarketQ22023,Experian,August31,2023.Exhibit1Economicfactorsandinterestratesarereducingconsumerpurchasingpower,leadingUSconsumerstopostponecarpurchases.Impactofhigh-interest-rateenv
15、ironmentontimingandtypeofvehiclepurchase,%ofrespondentsPostpone purchaseNon-electric-vehicle(EV)nsiderersEVsiderersAbandonpurchase6+2Chooseflexibleownership(eg,subscription)70Extendfinancingtoreducemonthlypayments9+3Doesnotaffectme16+2Buymoreaffordablecar(eg,smallerorused)24-4Note:Figuresdonotsumto1
16、00%,becauseofrounding.Question:HowdidtherecentseininterestratesandtheoverallUSeconomicsituationaffectyou?Question:Whatisthelikelyeffectofincreasedinterestratesandhighercarpricesonyourcarpurchasingdecisionnow?Source：McKJnseyCenterforFutureMobilityUSCarBuyerSentimentPulseSurvey2023.n=1,029,conductedJuly21-24McKInsey&CoayThecurrenthigh-interest-rateenvironmenthaslikelyred
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