纽约联储-了解美国气候变化与不平等之间的联系（英）-2021.11-42正式版.docx

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1、STAFFREPORTSN 0.9 91N OV EMBER 2 02 1UnderstandingtheLinkagesbetweenClimateChangeandInequalityintheUnitedStatesRuchiAvtarKristianBlickleRajashriChakrabartiJanaviJanakiramanMaximPinkovskiyIElHKAlKlSIRVFBANK/NEWYORKUnderstandingtheLinkagesbetweenClimateChangeandInequalityintheUnitedStatesRuchiAvtar,Kr

2、istianBlickle,RajashriChakrabarti,JanaviJanakiraman,andMaximPinkovskiyFederalReserveBankOfNeWYorkStajfReports,no.991November2021JELclassification:Q54,Q58,D63AbstractWeconductareviewoftheexistingacademicliteraturetooutlinepossiblelinksbetweenclimatechangeandinequalityintheUnitedStates.First,researche

3、rshaveshownthattheimpactofbothphysicalandtransitionrisksmaybeunevenacrosslocation,income,race,andage.Thisisdrivenbyaregionsgeographyaswellasitsadaptationcapabilities.Second,measuresthatindividualsandgovernmentstaketoadapttoclimatechangeandtransitiontoloweremissionsriskincreasinginequality.Finally,wh

4、ilefederalaidandinsurancecoveragecanmitigatethedirectimpactofphysicalrisks,theirstructuremay-inadvertentlysustainandentrenchexistinginequalities.Weconcludebyoutliningsomedirectionsforfutureresearchonthenexusbetweeninequalityandclimatechange.Keywords:climate,naturaldisaster,inequalityAvtar,Blickle,Ch

5、akrabarti,Janakiraman,Pinkovskiy:FederalReserveBankofNewYork(emails:ruchi.avtarny.frb.org,kristian.blickleny.frb.org,rajashri.chakrabartiny.frb.org,janavi.janakiramanny.frb.org,maxim.pinkovskiyny.frb.org).TheauthorsthankMarkAndrews,NicolasBecka,TerriJ.Fowlkes,AndrewHaughwout,BeverlyHirtle,AkashKanqj

6、ia,NicholasKlagge,DonMorgan,MichaelJ.Roy,JoaoSantos,LamairJ.Tanner,andKatherineTilghmanHillforvaluableinput,suggestions,andcomments.Thispaperpresentspreliminaryfindingsandisbeingdistributedtoeconomistsandotherinterestedreaderssolelytostimulatediscussionandelicitcomments.Theviewsexpressedinthispapera

7、rethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyreflectthepositionoftheFederalReserveBankofNewYorkortheFederalReserveSystem.Anyerrorsoromissionsaretheresponsibilityoftheauthor(s).Toviewtheauthors,disclosurestatements,visithttps:/www.newyorkfed.org/research/stafLreports/sr99l.html.IntroductionAlthoughtheeffe

8、ctsofclimatechangeoneconomicoutputandfinancialstabilityhavereceivedconsiderableattentioninpublicdiscourse,scholarlyliterature,andpolicydiscussions,theinteractionsbetweenclimatechangeandincome,wealthandhealthinequality We interchangeably use economic inequality to describe these inequalities.haverece

9、ivedfarlessdiscussion.However,itisincreasinglylikelythatclimatechangewillnotonlyhaveimportanteffectsoneconomicoutput,butthatitwillhaveprofoundeffectsonthegeographic,socioeconomic,anddemographicdistributionofoutput.Thispaperpresentsaliteraturereviewofexistingevidenceonmechanismsbywhichclimatechangeca

10、naffecteconomicinequalityintheUnitedStates.First,wereviewwhetherrisksfromclimatechangeaffectpopulationsandregionsdifferently.Second,weconsiderwhetherinstitutionsandpoliciesaroundclimateriskmayhavedifferentialeffectsindifferentregionsandondifferentcommunities.Finally,weidentifyopenquestionsandgapsint

11、heliteraturethatcouldbenefitfromadditionalexplorationandresearch.Risksassociatedwithclimatechangecanbedecomposedintotwocategoriesphysicalrisksandtransitionrisks.Physicalrisksrefertothepotentialforlossesasclimate-relatedchanges(storms,droughts,floods,sealevelrises,etc.)disruptbusinessoperations,destr

12、oycapital,andinterrupteconomicactivity.Transitionrisksrefertothepotentialforlossesresultingfromashiftinpolicy(forexample,movingtowardalower-carboneconomy),consumersentiment,technologicalinnovationandmanyothersthatwillaffectthevalueofcertainassetsandliabilities.Transitionriskscanalsotaketheformofpers

13、onaladaptationmechanismstocombatclimatechangethroughmigrationorinnovation.Wediscussinsectionsbelowwhetherthesephysicalandtransitionrisksassociatedwithclimatechangeareunevenacrossgeography,income,race,andage.See Chakrabarti (2021).Wefindmultipleimportantchannels,highlightedbyvariousstrandsofliteratur

14、e,thatpointtothehypothesisthattheheterogeneityindirectphysicalimpactsofclimatechange,thedifferentialadaptationcapabilitiesofdifferentregions,andtheeffectsofclimatepolicyandinstitutionsmayworktoincreaseeconomicinequality.First,theliteratureonthegeographiclocationofthedirectphysicalimpactsofclimatecha

15、ngesuggeststhatregionsoftheUnitedStatesthatarehometoabove-averagesharesoflow-incomeandminoritygroupsarelikelytosufferthegreatestmeteorologicaleffectsofclimatechange.Inparticular,theU.S.South,withthelowestpercapitaincomeoftheU.S.censusregions,ispredictedtoexperiencethegreatestleveloftotaldirectdamage

16、sfromclimatechange.Second,agrowingliteratureinhouseholdfinancepresentsevidencethatlow-incomeandminorityAmericansarelimitedinhowtheymayadapttoclimatechangebecausetheyhavelessaccesstoinsuranceandarelesslikelytohaveaccesstocreditwhenneeded.Moreover,anothergrowingbodyofworksuggeststhatamajoradaptationmechanismtoclimatechangeworldwidewillbemigrationtotheUnitedStatesfromlow-incomecountriestha