CFA三级培训项目：经典题_资本市场预期（Capital Market Expectations）_标准版.docx

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2、IS u-ueS-n-CIaBM-qs N ACase:NeshieWakulukWakuluk,sapproachtoeconomicforecastingutilizesastructuralmodelinconjunctionwithadiffusionindextodeterminethecurrentphaseofacountry,sbusinesscycle.Thisapproachhasproducedsuccessfulpredictionsinthepast,thusWakulukhashighconfidenceinthepredictions.Wakulukalsodet

3、ermineswhetheranyadjustmentsneedtobemadetoherinitialestimatesoftherespectiveaggregateeconomicgrowthtrendsbasedonhistoricalratesofgrowthforCountriesXandY(bothdevelopedmarkets)andCountryZ(adevelopingmarket).Exhibit1summarizesWakuluk,spredictions:1Exhibit 1 Prediction for Current Phase of the Business

4、CycleCountry XCountry YCountry ZInitial RecoveryContractionLate UpswingWakulukassumesshort-terminterestratesadjustwithexpectedinflationandareprocyclical.Wakulukreviewsthehistoricalshort-terminterestratetrendsforeachcountry,whichfurtherconfirmsherpredictionsshowninExhibit1.HWakulukdecidestofocusonCou

5、ntryYtodeterminethepathofnominalinterestrates,thepotentialeconomicresponseofCountryY,seconomytothispath,andthetimingforwhenCountryY,seconomymaymoveintothenextbusinesscycle.Wakulukmakesthefollowingobservations:Observation1MonetarypolicyhasbeenpersistentlylooseforCountryY,whilefiscalpolicieshavebeenpe

6、rsistentlytight.Observation2CountryYisexpectedtosignificantlyincreasetransferpaymentsandintroduceamoreprogressivetaxregime.Observation3ThecurrentyieldcurveforCountryYsuggeststhatthebusinesscycleisintheslowdownphase,withbondyieldsstartingtoreflectcontractionaryconditions.WakulukdecidestofocusonCountr

7、yYtodeterminethepathofnominalinterestrates,thepotentialeconomicresponseofCountryY,seconomytothispath,andthetimingforwhenCountryY,seconomymaymoveintothenextbusinesscycle.Wakulukmakesthefollowingobservations：cfafrmcpacmavideoyweiin:804283381Observation1MonetarypolicyhasbeenpersistentlylooseforCountryY

8、whilefiscalpolicieshavebeenpersistentlytight.Observation2CountryYisexpectedtosignificantlyincreasetransferObservation3ThecurrentyieldcurveforCountryYsuggeststhatthebusinesscycleisintheslowdownphase,withbondyieldsstartingtoreflectcontractionaryconditions.1Wakulukmostlikelyseekstomitigatewhichofthefol

9、lowingbiasesinA.AvailabilityB.TimeperiodC.Survivorship.-EUB=BU0一-Il-LIM0JJopu3Uo-SSdull-6UOJIJ-3q1。1|1311AqPUUnM=u-0qOlAUUPU一p-s-q三n-roUBP6三E0一6U&S-七s366nszM-Ss-q-LodW6三eOlSnp：0d-B-l-3u3PUBUP-tPqoUoSUo-SnpUo:JSq3s5qOI三右8-=S.Slunlal-JoodPUe三-0szCTUMs-E-TOO-O-CT一uqMwSJt-sHC.imposesnoconsistencyofanaly

10、sisacrossitemsoratdifferentpointsintime.*a*MMBMMMWMWWUMOMTMflBMM1Wakuluk,sapproachtoeconomicforecastingutilizesbothastructuralmodel(e.g.,aneconometricmodelapproach)andadiffusionindex(e.g.,aleadingindicator-basedapproach).However,thetwoapproacheshaveweaknesses:Aneconometricmodelapproachmaygiveafalses

11、enseofprecision,andaleadingindicator-basedapproachcanprovidefalsesignals.Twostrengthsofthechecklistapproachareitsflexibilityandlimitedcomplexity,althoughoneweaknessisthatitimposesnoconsistencyofanalysisacrossitemsoratdifferentpointsintime.1Wakulukismostlikelytomakesignificantadjustmentstoherestimate

12、A.CountryYonlyB.CountryZonlyC.CountriesYandZSPU匕ISBdOl-SlUEISn(PBIUBSJ-UkSOEBaBEOJJSA-BUBL-nbAeLUuz66UB-52nuruP-dpl-0E6UOPPUnq0一-W-Bs-roEPdo-ooplss-jl3UJ6u-do-PB-zAJlUnoD1ABasedonExhibit1andWakuluk,sassumptionsaboutshort-termratesandexpectedinflation,short-termratesinCountryXaremostlikelytobe:pPMI+p

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