IMF-澳大利亚：精选问题（英）-2024.1.docx

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1、INTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDIMFCountryReportNo.24/12AUSTRA1.IASelectedissuesJanuary2024ThisSelectedIssuespaperonAustraliawaspreparedbyastaffteamoftheInternationalMonetaryFundasbackgrounddocumentationfortheperiodicconsultationwiththemembercountry.Itisbasedontheinformationavailableatthetimeitwascomplete

2、donDecember6,2023.CopiesofthisreportareavailabletothepublicfromInternationalMonetaryFundPublicationServicesPOBox92780Washington,D.C.20090Telephone:(202)623-7430Fax:(202)623-7201E-mail:publicatiousimf.orgWeb:InternationalMonetaryFundWashington,D.C.2024InternationalMonetaryFundINTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFU

3、NDAUSTRA1.IASE1.ECTEDISSUESDecember4z2023ApprovedByAsiaandPacificDepartmentPreparedByAbdullahAlnasser,PragyanDeb,andNourTawk(allAPD).CONTENTSMACROECONOMICIMPACTOFMIGRATION2A. RecentTrendsinMigration2B. MigrationinAustraliainanInternationalContext4C. MigrantCharacteristicsand1.aborMarketOutcomes5D. I

4、mpactofMigration7E. Conclusion15HGURES1. EffectSofMigrationInflowShocksonOutputand1.abourOutcomes132. EffectsofMigrationInflowShocksonInflationandHousingPrices14References20ANNEX3. EffectsofMigrationShocksonSelectedMacroeconomicOutcomes-RobustnessChecks16MACROECONOMICIMPACTOFMIGRATIONPreparedbyAbdul

5、lahAlnasser,PragyanDeb,NourTawk(allAPD),WethanktheAustralianauthoritiesfortheirvaluablecommentsandsuggestions.MigrationinAustraliahashistoricallybeenasignificantsourceofpopulationgrowth,withathirdofthepopulationbornoverseas.Migrationissettobecomeevenmoreimportantasthepopulationnaturalgrowthratedecli

6、nes.AustraliaattractssomeofthebesteducatedmigrantstoOECDcountrieswhoaremostlyskilledworkersandstudents,Withhighlaborforceparticipationratesandlowunemployment.DisentanglingmacroeconomiceffectsofmigrationfromdriversOfmigrationischallenging,butwithinAustralia,migrationsurgeshavehistoricallybeenassociat

7、edwithhighergrowthandfavorablelabormarketoutcomes,withnegligiblepricepressuresexceptinthehousingmarket.Cross-countryanalysisusinginstrumentalvariablesconfirmsapositiveimpactofmigrationonmacroeconomicoutcomes-output,employment,andproductivity-withoutsignificantinflationaryimpact.Whilehousingaffordabi

8、lityisimpactedatthemargin,thiscouldrepresentstructuralsupplyshortagesandwouldbebestaddressedbyboostingsupply.A. RecentTrendsinMigration1. Australiahasapopulationof26million,withcloseto90percentlivinginahandfulofurbanareasaroundtheeasternandsouthernseaboards.Averagepopulationdensityisthereforeoneofth

9、elowestintheworld,at3.5personspersquarekilometergiventhesemi-aridanddesertgeographyofmuchoftheinteriorofthecountry.Themedianageofthepopulationis37.5yearswithahighlifeexpectancyofcloseto84years(theworld,stenthhighestin20231.ifeEXDectanCybyCoUmryandintheWorId(2023)-WOridOmeter(WOrldOmeterS.info).These

10、xratioisroughlybalancedat0.99malesperfemaleandtheoldagedependencyratio-numberofindividualsaged65andoverper100peopleofworkingage(20to64)stoodat30,lowerthantheOECDaverageof33,buthasbeenincreasingfastreflectingAustraliasincreasinglifeexpectancyanddecreasingfertilityrate(seebelow).2. Overseasmigrationha

11、shistoricallyplayedanimportantroleinAustralia.Ithasbeenasignificantsourceofpopulationgrowth,withvariabilityovertimeduetochangingdomesticandglobalfactors.WhileseverallargeincreaseswererecordedbeforetheglobalfinancialcrisisandintheyearsbeforetheCOVID-19pandemic,migrantsinflowssurgedinthelastyearandaha

12、lf.Roughlyathirdofthepopulationaged15yearsandoverisbornoverseas,with23percentarrivingbefore2010,whiletherestrepresentsmorerecentmigration.3. Netoverseasmigrationissettoplayanevenlargerrolegoingforwardastherateofnaturalincreasediminishes.Afterpeakingat3.55babiesperwomanin1961,Australiantotalfertility

13、rate(TFR)hasfallencontinuously,NetOverseasMigration(Numberofpeoplet,000)ScAR-Netoverseasmigrationzeroinereaching1.66in2020-21,wellbelowthereplacementrateof2.1(therateneededforagenerationtoreplaceitself).Asaresult,overthelastdecade,netoverseasmigrationscontributionstoAustraliaspopulationgrowthincreas

14、edtoroughly60percent.Afterstallingduringthepandemic,whichresultedinthefirstrecordedquarterlypopulationdeclineinAustraliaspopulation,migrationflowsreturnedquicklyafterbordersre-openedin2022.Netoverseasmigrationwas152,000peopleintheMarch2023quarterand454,000peopleovertheyeartoMarch2023,whichdrovemosto

15、ftheannualpopulationgrowthandwasthelargestnetinflowofmigrantsonrecord,withpotentiallyimportantmacroeconomiceffects.4. Recenttrendsinmigrationweredrivenbyhigherarrivals,particularlystudentsfromIndiaandChina.Therewasasharpincreaseinmigrantarrivalsin2022andinthefirsthalfof2023,whiledeparturesremainedsu

16、bdued,inlargepartaconsequenceoffewertemporarymigrantshavingarrivedduringthepandemic.Thelargestshareofnewmigrantswerestudents,ashashistoricallybeenthecase,followedbyskilledpermanentandpPl,l,ionGrozlmdCCneESl岫wlllltemporarymigrants.Thenumberofworkingholidaymakerarrivals-aspecialvisathatletspeople18to30yearsold(35yearsforsomecountries)haveanextendedholidayinAustraliawiththeabi