《统计学》（袁卫 第四版）第8章修改后的全部表格与图形.docx

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1、第8章时间序列分析与预测全部表格和图形（按书稿中顺序）:表8.119782012年中国国内生产总值（GDP）及人口数据年份国内生产总值（亿元）国内生产总值年增长率年末人口（万人）年平均人口（万人）人均GDP（元）(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)19783645.2211.79625995617381.2319794062.587.69754296901419.2519804545.627.89870598124463.2519814891.565.210007299389492.1619825323.359.1101654100863527.7819835962.6510.91030081023

2、31582.6819847208.0515.2104357103683695.2019859016.0413.5105851105104857.82198610275.188.8107507106679963.19198712058.6211.61093001084041112.38198815042.8211.31110261101631365.51198916992.324.11127041118651519.00199018667.823.81143331135191644.00199121781.59.21158231150781892.76199226923.4814.2117171

3、1164972311.09199335333.9214.01185171178442998.36199448197.8613.11198501191844044.00199560793.7310.91211211204865045.73199671176.5910.01223891217555845.89199778973.039.31236261230086420.18199884402.287.81247611241946796.03199989677.057.61257861252747158.50200099214.558.41267431262657857.682001109655.

4、178.31276271271858621.712002120332.699.11284531280409398.052003135822.7610.012922712884010541.972004159878.3410.112998812960812335.582005184937.3711.313075613037214185.362006216314.4312.713144813110216499.702007265810.3114.213212913178920169.462008314045.439.613280213246623707.712009340902.819.21334

5、5013312625607.532010401512.8010.413409113377130015.052011473104.059.313473513441335197.792012519470.107.713540413507038459.47注：其中“国内生产总值”按当年价格计算，“国内生产总值年增长率”按可比价格计算。资料来源：国家统计局数据库o0000。图8.2中国的国内生产总值变动图200197019801990200020102020图8.3中国国内生产总值年增长率变动图表8.219902012年中国人均国内生产总值（GDP）及增长数据年份人均GDP阮）逐期增长量（元）环比发展

6、速度%环比增长速度%定基发展速度定基增长速度%19901644.0019911892.76248.76115.1315.13115.1315.1319922311.09418.33122.1022.10140.5840.5819932998.36687.27129.7429.74182.3882.3819944044.001045.64134.8734.87245.99145.9919955045.731001.73124.7724.77306.92206.9219965845.89800.16115.8615.86355.59255.5919976420.18574.29109.829.82

7、390.52290.5219986796.03375.85105.855.85413.38313.3819997158.50362.47105.335.33435.43335.4320007857.68699.18109.779.77477.96377.9620018621.71764.03109.729.72524.43424.4320029398.05776.34109.009.00571.66471.66200310541.971143.92112.1712.17641.24541.24200412335.581793.61117.0117.01750.34650.34200514185

8、.361849.78115.0015.00862.86762.86200616499.702314.34116.3116.311003.63903.63200720169.463669.76122.2422.241226.851126.85200823707.713538.25117.5417.541442.071342.07200925607.531899.82108.018.011557.641457.64201030015.054407.52117.2117.211825.731725.73201135197.795182.74117.2717.272140.982040.9820123

9、8459.473261.68109.279.272339.382239.38资料来源：国家统计局数据库o图8.4包含四种因素的时间序列图形（八）线性长期趋势的图形(b)非线性长期趋势的图形图8.5长期趋势的图形图8.6季节变动的图形表8.3国家财政收入季度数据及移动平均数据（单位：亿元）年份季度国家财政收入（亿元）三次移动平均五次移动平均指标值逐期增氏指标值逐期增长2009一季度14642.0二季度19324.217169.7三季度17542.817955.5785.817627.10四季度16999.418056.4101.019443.261816.162010一季度19627.12011

10、6.42060.019516.3873.12二季度23722.821013.2896.820016.02499.64三季度19689.821151.2138.021841301825.28四季度20041.021952.2801.024065.922224.622011一季度26125.825639.03686.824278.88212.96二季度30750.227221.21582.224756.24477.36三季度24787.625871.5-1349.726743301987.06四季度22076.625613.5-258.028281.961538.662012一季度29976.32

11、8624.03010.527490.54-791.42二季度33819.130196.21572.227857.34366.8三季度26793.129077.9-1118.2四季度26621.6资料来源：国家统计局数据库.WWW。季度数据由月度数据汇总形成.表8.4国家财政收入季度数据四次移动平均计算表（单位：亿元）年份季度国家财政收入（亿元）四次移动平均移正平均逐期增长200914642.017127.10二19324.2三17542.817750.24四16999.418373.4819473.0320009.8820770.2822394.9524151.7025426.2525935.1526897.7827664.9028166.3829302.5318923.201172.962010-19627.119741.40818.20二23722.820389.98648.57三19689.821582.511192.54四20041.023273.281690.76201126125.824788.931515.65二30750.225680.60891.67三24787.626416.36735.76四22076.627281.29864.922012一29976.327915.59634.30二33819.128734.40818.81三26793.1